Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach , a politically moderate Republican who has narrowly won four House elections in a district that is trending Democratic, took a formal step Thursday toward a campaign for governor in 2010.
Gerlach, whose 6th District takes in suburbs and exurbs west of Philadelphia, announced that he had filed papers with Pennsylvania election officials to establish an “exploratory committee” that would allow him to raise and spend campaign funds as he weighs whether to become an official candidate.
Exploratory committees almost always are precursors to full-fledged campaigns, though Gerlach said Thursday’s announcement was not tantamount to a declaration of candidacy. He issued a written statement saying he would take the next few months to “speak with political, business and community leaders, help our 2009 statewide judicial candidates, conduct polling and determine if there is a clear path to victory.”
“I suspect that by late spring we’ll know whether to formally move forward with a campaign for governor,” he added.
If Gerlach indeed bails, Democrats would stand an excellent chance at capturing this seat. Out of all the districts in the Philly burbs, Gerlach’s 6th CD took the most dramatic swing towards The Blue in 2008 according to a recent Swing State Project analysis of the raw numbers. After supporting Kerry by a tight 52-48 margin in 2004, the dam burst wide open last November, with Obama carrying the district by a full 17 points (58-41). As we’ve discussed recently, Democrats have a number of players on the local bench who could jump in once Jimmy jumps out.
As for Gerlach’s gubernatorial bid, I have a hard time seeing him winning a statewide primary, so it’s hard to see why he might pursue this option. Perhaps he’s just looking to cap off this stage of his political career with a bang, rather than end it with a humiliating loss to a Bob Roggio-type in 2010.
(Hat-tip: conspiracy)
My gut feeling is that Gerlach will defeat Toomey in a primary. Gerlach may move a bit rightward, and I just don’t see Toomey winning the primary. Even if the candidate isn’t sufficiently conservative, Republicans will back the guy who can win.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but it seems Gerlach would be a formidable candidate if he got through the primary. Who’s running on the Democratic side?
Doesnt the GOP have a bench in this district, though? If a strong moderate Republican were to get the nomination they could win it.
I assume Ridge had rein over whatever role was involved in 2002 before Rendell took office but if Republicans only have control of the state senate will that be enough for them to obstruct us or can we achieve a pretty good map with the Governor and state house?
than getting knocked off in the 6th.
If he loses a primary to Toomey, who goes on to lose in the general, then he gets to be the Moderate Republican You Should Have Nominated, and he gets to run for something else again later. And of course he might conceivably win the primary too.
Just hanging on and losing the 6th, though, does nothing for him. Ask Anne Northup.
It’s up or out for Gerlach, and I’m not surprised he’s trying up. I know I wanted Lampson and Marshall to make the same call last cycle, for Senate. Marshall might well have won that race, given how close Jim Martin came.